16 resultados para Effective Reproduction Number

em QUB Research Portal - Research Directory and Institutional Repository for Queen's University Belfast


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A Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemic affecting animals on domestic livestock farms was reported in South Africa during January-August 2010. The first cases occurred after heavy rainfall, and the virus subsequently spread countrywide. To determine the possible effect of environmental conditions and vaccination on RVF virus transmissibility, we estimated the effective reproduction number (R) for the virus over the course of the epidemic by extending the Wallinga and Teunis algorithm with spatial information. Re reached its highest value in mid-February and fell below unity around mid-March, when vaccination coverage was 7.5%-45.7% and vector-suitable environmental conditions were maintained. The epidemic fade-out likely resulted first from the immunization of animals following natural infection or vaccination. The decline in vector-suitable environmental conditions from April onwards and further vaccination helped maintain R below unity. Increased availability of vaccine use data would enable evaluation of the effect of RVF vaccination campaigns.

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Single crystals of mercuric bis(N-imino-methyl-formamidate), Hg(Imf)(2), were obtained from aqueous solutions of 1,2,4-triazole and Hg(NO3)(2)center dot 2H(2)O. The crystal structure [monoclinic, P2(1)/c (no. 14), a = 499.6(2), b = 1051.2(4), c = 711.1(3) pm, beta = 117.55(1)degrees, Z = 2, R, for 890 reflections with I-0 > 2 sigma(I-0): 0.0369] contains linear centrosymmetric Hg(Imf)(2) molecules with Hg-N distances of only 203.5(7)pm. Two plus two intra- and intermolecular nitrogen atoms add to an effective coordination number of 6.

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In the epidemiology of infectious diseases, the basic reproduction number, R-0, has a number of important applications, most notably it can be used to predict whether a pathogen is likely to become established, or persist, in a given area. We used the R-0 model to investigate the persistence of 3 tick-borne pathogens; Babesia microti, Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in an Apodemus sylvaticus-Ixodes ricinus system. The persistence of these pathogens was also determined empirically by screening questing ticks and wood mice by PCR. All 3 pathogens behaved differently in response to changes in the proportion of transmission hosts on which I. ricinus fed, the efficiency of transmission between the host and ticks and the abundance of larval and nymphal ticks found on small mammals. Empirical data supported theoretical predictions of the R-0 model. The transmission pathway employed and the duration of systemic infection were also identified as important factors responsible for establishment or persistence of tick-borne pathogens in a given tick-host system. The current study demonstrates how the R-0 model can be put to practical use to investigate factors affecting tick-borne pathogen persistence, which has important implications for animal and human health worldwide.

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Nonrelativistic electrostatic unmagnetized shocks are frequently observed in laboratory plasmas and they are likely to exist in astrophysical plasmas. Their maximum speed, expressed in units of the ion acoustic speed far upstream of the shock, depends only on the electron-to-ion temperature ratio if binary collisions are absent. The formation and evolution of such shocks is examined here for a wide range of shock speeds with particle-in-cell simulations. The initial temperatures of the electrons and the 400 times heavier ions are equal. Shocks form on electron time scales at Mach numbers between 1.7 and 2.2. Shocks with Mach numbers up to 2.5 form after tens of inverse ion plasma frequencies. The density of the shock-reflected ion beam increases and the number of ions crossing the shock thus decreases with an increasing Mach number, causing a slower expansion of the downstream region in its rest frame. The interval occupied by this ion beam is on a positive potential relative to the far upstream. This potential pre-heats the electrons ahead of the shock even in the absence of beam instabilities and decouples the electron temperature in the foreshock ahead of the shock from the one in the far upstream plasma. The effective Mach number of the shock is reduced by this electron heating. This effect can potentially stabilize nonrelativistic electrostatic shocks moving as fast as supernova remnant shocks. 

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In monogynous hymenopteran societies, the number of mates of a queen strongly influences the potential for conflict between workers and queens over the maternity of males. Queens always 'prefer' their own sons to sons of workers, regardless of queen mating frequency. When a queen mates once, workers are more closely related to, and therefore are expected to prefer, their own sons and then sons of sisters to sons of the queen. However, if effective paternity frequency exceeds 2, workers on average should prefer queen-produced males to males produced by their sisters. We studied the queen mating frequency of seven stingless bee species: the Mexican species Scaptotrigona mexicana , S. pectoralis and the Australian species Austroplebeia symei , Trigona clypearis , T. hockingsi , T. mellipes and T. sapiens . We then determined whether males arise from eggs laid by workers or queens in A. symei , T. clypearis , T. hockingsi and T. mellipes . We show that all seven species investigated are most likely singly mated and that the queen dominates reproduction. This indicates that the queen's mating frequency alone does not determine whether workers or the queen produces the males.

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Context. Electron-impact excitation collision strengths are required for the analysis and interpretation of stellar observations.
Aims. This calculation aims to provide effective collision strengths for the Mg V ion for a larger number of transitions and for a greater temperature range than previously available, using collision strength data that include contributions from resonances.
Methods. A 19-state Breit-Pauli R-matrix calculation was performed. The target states are represented by configuration interaction wavefunctions and consist of the 19 lowest LS states, having configurations 2s22p4, 2s2p5, 2p6, 2s22p33s, and 2s22p33p. These target states give rise to 37 fine-structure levels and 666 possible transitions. The effective collision strengths were calculated by averaging the electron collision strengths over a Maxwellian distribution of electron velocities.
Results. The non-zero effective collision strengths for transitions between the fine-structure levels are given for electron temperatures in the range = 3.0 - 7.0. Data for transitions among the 5 fine-structure levels arising from the 2s22p4 ground state configurations, seen in the UV range, are discussed in the paper, along with transitions in the EUV range – transitions from the ground state 3P levels to 2s2p5?3P levels. The 2s22p4?1D–2s2p5?1P transition is also noted. Data for the remaining transitions are available at the CDS.

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When mortality is high, animals run a risk if they wait to accumulate resources for improved reproduction so they may trade-off the time of reproduction with number and size of offspring. Animals may attempt to improve food acquisition by relocation, even in 'sit and wait' predators. We examine these factors in an isolated population of an orb-web spider Zygiella x-notata. The population was monitored for 200 days from first egg laying until all adults had died. Large females produced their first clutch earlier than did small females and there was a positive correlation between female size and the number and size of eggs produced. Many females, presumably without eggs, abandoned their web site and relocated their web position. This is presumed because female Zygiella typically guard their eggs. In total, c. 25% of females reproduced but those that relocated were less likely to do so, and if they did, they produced the clutch at a later date than those that remained. When the date of lay was controlled there was no effect of relocation on egg number but relocated females produced smaller eggs. The data are consistent with the idea that females in resource-poor sites are more likely to relocate. Relocation seems to be a gamble to find a more productive site but one that achieves only a late clutch of small eggs and few achieve that.

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Background: Sperm DNA damage shows great promise as a biomarker of infertility. The study aim is to determine the usefulness of DNA fragmentation (DF), including modified bases (MB), to predict assisted reproduction treatment (ART) outcomes. Methods: DF in 360 couples (230 IVF and 130 ICSI) was measured by the alkaline Comet assay in semen and in sperm following density gradient centrifugation (DGC) and compared with fertilization rate (FR), embryo cumulative scores (ECS1) for the total number of embryos/treatment, embryos transferred (ECS2), clinical pregnancy (CP) and spontaneous pregnancy loss. MB were also measured using formamidopyrimidine DNA glycosylase to convert them into strand breaks. Results: In IVF, FR and ECS decreased as DF increased in both semen and DGC sperm, and couples who failed to achieve a CP had higher DF than successful couples (+12.2 semen, P = 0.004; +9.9 DGC sperm, P = 0.010). When MB were added to existing strand breaks, total DF was markedly higher (+17.1 semen, P = 0.009 and +13.8 DGC sperm, P = 0.045). DF was not associated with FR, ECS or CP in either semen or DGC sperm following ISCI. In contrast, by including MB, there was significantly more DNA damage (+16.8 semen, P = 0.008 and +15.5 DGC sperm, P = 0.024) in the group who did not achieve CP. Conclusion: SDF can predict ART outcome for IVF. Converting MB into further DNA strand breaks increased the test sensitivity, giving negative correlations between DF and CP for ICSI as well as IVF. © 2010 The Author.

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Ractopamine (RCT) is a member of the beta-2-agonist (beta-agonist) family. It is licensed for use as an animal growth promoter in more than 20 countries worldwide, including the United States and Canada, but is either not licensed or prohibited by over 150 others, including those within the European Union. The issue of the use of RCT in livestock bound for human consumption has risen to prominence recently following the decision by The People's Republic of China to ban the import of pork from a number of processing plants after finding traces of RCT in shipments from the U.S.A.

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We conducted a genome-wide association study testing single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and copy number variants (CNVs) for association with early-onset myocardial infarction in 2,967 cases and 3,075 controls. We carried out replication in an independent sample with an effective sample size of up to 19,492. SNPs at nine loci reached genome-wide significance: three are newly identified (21q22 near MRPS6-SLC5A3-KCNE2, 6p24 in PHACTR1 and 2q33 in WDR12) and six replicated prior observations1-4 (9p21, 1p13 near CELSR2-PSRC1-SORT1, 10q11 near CXCL12, 1q41 in MIA3, 19p13 near LDLR and 1p32 near PCSK9). We tested 554 common copy number polymorphisms (>1% allele frequency) and none met the pre-specified threshold for replication (P < 10-3). We identified 8,065 rare CNVs but did not detect a greater CNV burden in cases compared to controls, in genes compared to the genome as a whole, or at any individual locus. SNPs at nine loci were reproducibly associated with myocardial infarction, but tests of common and rare CNVs failed to identify additional associations with myocardial infarction risk.

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How are resources split between caring for offspring and self-maintenance? Is the timing of immune challenge important? In burying beetles challenging the immune system prior to breeding does not affect the total number and quality of offspring produced during the individual's lifetime. However, the immune system is suppressed during breeding and if an immune challenge is presented during this time the beetle will upregulate its immune system, but at the detriment to the number of offspring produced during that breeding opportunity.We know that parental investment and immune investment are costly processes, but it is unclear which trait will be prioritized when both may be required. Here, we address this question using the burying beetle Nicrophorus vespilloides, carrion breeders that exhibit biparental care of young. Our results show that immunosuppression occurs during provision of parental care. We measured phenoloxidase (PO) on Days 1-8 of the breeding bout and results show a clear decrease in PO immediately from presentation of the breeding resource onward. Having established baseline immune investment during breeding we then manipulated immune investment at different times by applying a wounding challenge. Beetles were wounded prior to and during the parental care period and reproductive investment quantified. Different effects on reproductive output occur depending on the timing of wounding. Challenging the immune system with wounding prior to breeding does not affect reproductive output and subsequent lifetime reproductive success (LRS). LRS is also unaffected by applying an immune elicitor prior to breeding, though different arms of the immune system are up/downregulated, perhaps indicating a trade-off between cellular and humoral immunity. In contrast, wounding during breeding reduces reproductive output and to the greatest extent if the challenge is applied early in the breeding bout. Despite being immunosuppressed, breeding beetles can still respond to wounding by increasing PO, albeit not to prebreeding levels. This upregulation of PO during breeding may affect parental investment, resulting in a reduction in reproductive output. The potential role of juvenile hormone in controlling this trade-off is discussed.

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Purpose: We reviewed the outcome of cuff downsizing with an artificial urinary sphincter for treating recurrent incontinence due to urethral atrophy.

Materials and Methods: We analyzed the records of 17 patients in a 7-year period in whom clinical, radiological and urodynamic evidence of urethral atrophy was treated with cuff downsizing. Cuff downsizing was accomplished by removing the existing cuff and replacing it with a 4 cm. cuff within the established false capsule. Incontinence and satisfaction parameters before and after the procedure were assessed by a validated questionnaire.

Results: Mean patient age was 70 years (range 62 to 79). Average time to urethral atrophy was 31 months (range 5 to 96) after primary sphincter implantation. Mean followup after downsizing was 22 months (range 1 to 64). Cuff downsizing caused a mean decrease of 3.9 to 0.5 pads daily. The number of severe leakage episodes decreased from a mean of 5.4 to 2.1 The mean SEAPI (stress leakage, emptying, anatomy, protection, inhibition) score decreased from 8.2 to 2.4. Patient satisfaction increased from 15% to 80% after cuff downsizing. In 1 patient an infected cuff required complete removal of the device.

Conclusions: Patient satisfaction and continence parameters improved after cuff downsizing. We believe that this technique is a simple and effective method of restoring continence after urethral atrophy.

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Due to its efficiency and simplicity, the finite-difference time-domain method is becoming a popular choice for solving wideband, transient problems in various fields of acoustics. So far, the issue of extracting a binaural response from finite difference simulations has only been discussed in the context of embedding a listener geometry in the grid. In this paper, we propose and study a method for binaural response rendering based on a spatial decomposition of the sound field. The finite difference grid is locally sampled using a volumetric array of receivers, from which a plane wave density function is computed and integrated with free-field head related transfer functions, in the spherical harmonics domain. The volumetric array is studied in terms of numerical robustness and spatial aliasing. Analytic formulas that predict the performance of the array are developed, facilitating spatial resolution analysis and numerical binaural response analysis for a number of finite difference schemes. Particular emphasis is placed on the effects of numerical dispersion on array processing and on the resulting binaural responses. Our method is compared to a binaural simulation based on the image method. Results indicate good spatial and temporal agreement between the two methods.

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In Italy, standards for the management of free-roaming dogs (FRDs) are defined by regional norms, generating a high variability of approaches around the country. Despite efforts carried out by the competent authorities, FRDs are still a reality impacting upon animal health and welfare and public costs. A similar scenario can be found in many other Mediterranean and Balkan counties. Here we present 14 years of data (2000–2013) retrieved from the admission dog registry of a public shelter (PS) responsible for the collection of stray dogs from one Italian province. The aim of this retrospective study was to describe the local FRD population, identifying its source and to evaluate the effectiveness of the actions implemented by the local authorities. In the investigated period, 7,475 dogs were admitted to the PS. Despite the intense sterilisation plan (mean 381.7 sterilisations per year), the overall number of dogs entering PS did not decrease consistently across the years. Results highlighted a lack of responsibility of owners by failing to sterilise and identify their dogs and allowing intact animals to roam free, therefore producing uncontrolled and unwanted litters. The current dog population management strategy, based on both sheltering and capture-neuter-release programmes, is insufficient to tackle the straying phenomenon. Educational and sterilisation programmes should be an integral part of a successfully implemented FRD control plan. Our results provide further insight on free-roaming dog population dynamics and control systems, and may have important implications for many other local contexts across Europe trying to overcome the straying phenomenon.